Bayesian shrinkage estimates and forecasts of individual and total or aggregate outcomes

Bayesian shrinkage à la Stein and others can improve estimation of individual parameters and forecasts of individual future outcomes. In this paper the issue of the impact of shrinkage on the estimation of sums or totals of individual parameters and of individual outcomes is analyzed. Quadratic and “balanced” loss functions will be employed. The latter are a linear combination of “goodness of fit” and “precision of estimation” loss functions. Several examples will be analyzed in detail to illustrate general principles.     

关于我国社会消费品零售总额持续增长的实证分析

社会消费品零售总额是衡量人们消费水平的重要指标,也是国民经济体系中的一个重要指标。因此,分析研究社会消费品零售总额受哪些因素的影响,以及各因素对社会消费品零售总额的影响力的大小,对于处在转型期的中国经济良性发展具有重要的意义。从模型的假定、参数的估计以及各种检验方式得出结论:只有收入和消费能保持很好的线性相关性,在目前经济情况下,要刺激消费,关键在于提高居民的人均可支配收入。     

Using merger simulation models: Testing the underlying assumptions

Merger simulation is now widely used by economists to evaluate the likely competitive effects of a proposed merger. However, the reliability of a given merger simulation depends crucially on the reliability of the data used and the assumptions made. We discuss tests that can be used to assess the reliability of a merger simulation and show how these tests were applied in the context of the Volvo–Scania merger.     

The Determinants of Pharmaceutical R&D Expenditures: Evidence from Japan

During the past 20 years, the world pharmaceutical industry has experienced a dramatic increase in R&D intensity. We apply and extend a model developed by Grabowski and Vernon (2000, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 10, 201–215) with a pooled data sample of the 15 publicly listed Japanese drug firms for the period 1987–1998. As in the original study, we find expected returns to be an important determinant of R&D spending in the Japanese drug industry, albeit considerably smaller than in the U.S., which is particularly obvious in the case of returns from newly introduced drugs. However, our results are sensitive to econometric model specification, in particular to controlling for serial correlation and to a dynamic specification of the baseline model. Likewise, estimates on financial constraints are sensitive to model specification, indicating that Japanese drug firms face small or no financial constraints. Our results are consistent with the general literature on R&D investment behaviour, yet raise some methodological questions with regard to the original study.     

Estimation of a linear regression under microaggregation with the response variable as a sorting variable

Microaggregation is a popular statistical disclosure control technique for continuous data. The basic principle of microaggregation is to group the observations in a data set and to replace them by their corresponding group means. However, while reducing the disclosure risk of data files, the technique also affects the results of statistical analyses. The paper deals with the impact of microaggregation on a multiple linear regression in continuous variables. We show that parameter estimates are biased if the dependent variable is used to form the groups. Using this result, we develop a consistent estimator that removes the aggregation bias, and derive its asymptotic covariance matrix.     

不动产登记机关赔偿责任论纲

不动产登记机关对登记错误承担赔偿责任,既是登记公信力理论的合理逻辑延伸,也是其权利与义务相统一的必然要求;其责任的性质应界定为“国家赔偿责任”,适用过错责任的归责原则。在此基础上,分析不动产登记机关赔偿责任的构成要件,并从赔偿范围、资金来源和责任追究机制等方面对我国不动产登记机关赔偿责任机制进行具体设计。     

Do CRA‐Related Events Affect Shareholder Wealth? The Case of Bank Mergers

This study explores how Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) protests and their resolution affect the market value of merging banks. We find, in contrast to earlier research, that CRA‐related events are not associated with significant negative market reactions for either bidder or target institutions. Rather, the market does not seem to respond strongly to CRA‐related events at all. The results appear to stem from the choice of an estimation period for establishing an institution's baseline stock‐market price dynamics that does not include abnormal security price movements induced by the merger announcement.     

东辛油田螺杆泵故障分析及改进

简要论述了东辛油田螺杆泵应用情况,针对生产过程中出现的主要问题,仔细分析了故障原因,并提出改进措施,现场应用效果良好。     

基于差分演化算法的水文适线法研究

差分演化算法是一种基于群体个体间差异的高效进化算法，具有收敛快、控制参数少、程序实现简单等优点，将其应用于水文优化适线，搜索效率高。     

美国产品责任制度的博弈分析——兼论我国产品责任制度的最优战略

美国产品责任法对许多工业化国家的产品责任立法有重大影响,从某种意义上讲,其基本理论的演进是生产和消费双方博弈的结果,正是这种博弈催生了法律制度的最优战略选择。本文在分析美国产品责任法发展历史的基础上,用博弈论的方法分析了不同产品责任制度下的战略选择,并对我国产品责任法从理论基础、赔偿范围和标准等方面提出了有针对性的建议。